PC Shipments Decline... Again

Release time:2018-01-15
author:Ameya360
source:Dylan McGrath
reading:1396

  One thing is certain: global PC shipments declined for a sixth straight year in 2017, though market watchers disagreed about their performance in the fourth quarter of the year.

  IDC estimated that fourth quarter PC shipments increased slightly (less than 1 percent), while rival Gartner said they declined by 2 percent. The disparity between the estimates is partly explained by differences in the way the two firms define the PC category — Gartner's estimates do not include Chromebooks, for example.

  Both firms agreed that PC shipments were down again overall in 2017, with Gartner estimating a 2.8 percent decline and IDC saying the annual decline was about 0.2 percent. Both companies said they saw reasons for optimism in the results.

  IDC said 2017 was the most stable year for PC shipments since 2011, the last year that PC shipments increased on a global basis.

  "The fourth quarter results showed some potentially encouraging headway against the difficult environment in retail and consumer PCs," said Jay Chou, research manager with IDC's personal computing device tracker, in a press statement.

  Chou said that pockets of consumers — enticed by a growing number of PCs with all-day battery life, high portability and other advanced features — are taking a serious look at revamped PCs. "However, the overall PC market remains a challenging one," Chou said.

  According to Mikako Kitagawa, a principal analyst at Gartner, fourth quarter PC shipments were hamstrung by a steep decline in the U.S. market, which offset growth in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan, Latin America and Europe.

  "The fourth quarter results confirmed again that PCs are no longer popular holiday gift items," Kitagawa said through a press statements. This does not mean that PCs will disappear from households."

  Instead, Kitagawa said, PCs will become more specialized, purpose-driven devices. "PC buyers will look for quality and functionality rather than looking for the lowest price, which will increase PC average selling prices and improve profitability in the long run," Kitagawa said. "However, until this point is reached, the market will have to go through the shrinking phase caused by fewer PC users."

  Gartner and IDC agreed that HP was the leading PC vendor in the fourth quarter and for all of 2017 with market share of greater than 20 percent. Both companies ranked Lenovo second and Dell third for the quarter and for the year.

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After Long Decline, PC Shipments Forecast to Rise in 2018
  Shipments of PCs will return to growth — albeit tepid growth — in 2018 after six consecutive years of declines, according to the latest forecast from market research firm Gartner.  According to the forecast, shipments of business PCs will return to growth by the end of this year, driven by faster upgrades to Windows 10 in many regions, especially in Western Europe. This growth is expected to continue in 2018. The result is a forecast calling for global PC shipments to rise by a scant 0.8 percent next year — growth that a decade ago would have been considered cause for major concern but would be welcomed in today's climate.  "Despite the fact that prices have been rising due to higher component costs, Windows 10 replacements have kept the PC market relatively stable through 2017," said Ranjit Atwal, a research director at Gartner, in a press statement.  Slight growth in PC shipments next year is also expected to help the overall electronic device market — including PCs, tablets and smartphones — to increase shipments by about 2 percent next year, according to Gartner.  Gartner predicts that PC sales in 2018 will get a further boost from improvement in the Russian economy, driving more sales there, and efforts by Microsoft to develop along with a Chinese government agency a version of Windows 10 approved for China.  "The features of Windows 10 could be particularly useful for the Chinese Government that is looking to move from desktops and notebooks to ultramobile premium devices," Atwal said.  Meanwhile, after a minimal decrease expected this year, shipments of mobile phones are expected to return to growth in 2018, with shipment totals reaching 1.94 billion units, Gartner said. The firm expects about 1.88 billion mobile phones to ship this year.  Gartner projects that smartphones will represent about 86 percent of total mobile phone shipments next year, up 6 percent from this year. The firm said that component shorta  ges could leave OEMs unable to meet smartphone demand in the fourth quarter of this year.  Roberta Cozza, also a research director at Gartner, said a weaker lower end of the smartphone market is also contributing to a decrease in the overall mobile phone market this year.  "For this segment, local vendors continue to struggle against the shift toward top brands, while component price increases affect the ability of some Android vendors to compete more aggressively on price," Cozza said.  Despite it's nearly $1,000 retail price, strength of Apple's iPhone X is expected to drive sales of smartphones in North America,China and Western Europe in 2018, Gartner said.  "Given the late November availability of the iPhone X, we expect the iPhone's replacement cycle to flow more strongly into 2018," Cozza said.
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