Slowing Memory Market Cools <span style='color:red'>Chip Growth</span>
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Slowing Memory Market Cools Chip Growth

Semiconductor sales growth has slowed substantially in recent months as the rapid price increases that fueled the market's growth for more than two years has slowed to a trickle.The three-month rolling average for chip sales growth slowed to 13.8% in January, the lowest level since November 2016, according to the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization. Sales for the quarter were up 13.8% year-over-year, the lowest rate of growth since the fourth quarter of 2016. In fact, it marked the first time since the first quarter of 2017 that the growth rate slipped below 20%.The slowing sales growth has corresponded directly with a decline in the growth rate of DRAM and NAND flash memory prices, which have slowed dramatically in recent months as the memory industry shifts from a prolonged period of supply shortage to oversupply."The softening memory market has started to become a 'headwind' on total IC market growth," said market research firm IC Insights in a recent report. The firm is forecasting that overall chip sales growth will fall to 6% in the fourth quarter.IC Insights — which forecasts that the semiconductor industry has entered a "cooling period" after a prolonged period of expansion — noted that the memory chip market grew by only 8% in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. By contrast, the firm said, the memory chip market grew by 18% from the second quarter to the third quarter last year.Overall, DRAM sales increased by 9% in the third quarter to again set a new record at $28 billion, according to market research firm TrendForce's DRAMeXchange unit. But the firm said that pricing for mainstream DRAM applications such as PC, server and mobile increased by less than 2% in the quarter. Contract pricing for DDR3 consumer DRAM was the first to drop during the quarter because of weakening demand, while contract pricing for graphics DRAM actually decreased by 3% compared to the second quarter because of the sharp demand for cryptocurrency mining, TrendForce said.Also concerning is that TrendForce said that DRAM revenue growth in the third quarter was primarily due to increasing bit shipments, rather than rising prices. "Prices practically flattened out in 3Q18 as the market supply has been steadily expanding in the second half of the year," the firm said in a press statement.TrendForce predicts that DRAM prices, which started to fall in October, will continue to slide through the end of the fourth quarter, officially ending the DRAM boom that lasted for more than two years. Future price declines will be steep because the market has clearly entered an oversupply situation and inventories remain high, the firm said.   Meanwhile, TrendForce also reported recently that NAND flash revenue grew by just 4.4% in the third quarter compared with the second quarter, with the average selling price of devices falling by 10-15% on a contract basis. The firm maintains that the NAND market has been in oversupply since the start of this year.“The market for NAND Flash is expected to remain in oversupply during 4Q18, with steeper price decline for various NAND flash products,” said Ben Yeh, a DRAMeXchange analyst, in a statement.
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Release time：2018-11-28 00:00 reading：1173 Continue reading>>
Deep Learning Next Big <span style='color:red'>Chip Growth</span> Driver
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Deep Learning Next Big Chip Growth Driver

 Count Wally Rhines, semiconductor industry veteran and long-time CEO of Mentor Graphics, among the many who believe that deep-learning hardware will drive the next wave of growth for the semiconductor industry.Speaking at the GSA European Executive Forum here this week, Rhines added that memory will continue to be a key driver of the chip industry going forward. Despite the volatility of the semiconductor industry, R&D investment continues to be around 14% of revenue as it has been for the last 36 years, Rhines said, dismissing arguments put forth by some that there isn’t enough being ploughed back into R&D to maintain sustained growth.On growth, we should be watching out for China, and a lot of growth will come from visual processing for AI applications, Rhines said.He offered his perspective on the future of the semiconductor industry and why revenue forecasts from research and analyst firms have been consistently off target. With numerous historic charts and data, he highlighted the 96% error in the Semiconductor Industry Association’s three-year projection in 2002 and how analysts were off by 17% for the one-year forecast for 2017.He questioned why it was so difficult to forecast semiconductor industry revenue, especially when IC unit demand has always been predictable at around 8% per year and silicon area shipments can also be predicted and easily measured.A reason for the discrepancy more recently is because of the rise of system IC companies, whose revenue is only partially counted. “With leading system and digital companies also now becoming the new SoC designers and manufacturers, semiconductor industry forecasts are often deprived of the cost of the system,” said Rhines. “Systems companies comprised 13% of pure-play foundry sales in 2017.”Rhines asked whether the 2017 boom in semiconductor revenue was a fluke and then went on to answer his question. “When you consider the evolution of memory versus logic, memory now dominates the percentage of transistors manufactured,” he said.But, he added, when you consider that the next wave of computer architectures for visual processing and AI will require vast amounts of memory for brain-like pattern recognition, this will drive up memory volumes and, hence, semiconductor revenues.This will be dominated by areas like autonomous vehicles, with their need for visual information capture, storage, and processing with the corresponding flood of data.  In addition, AI-related companies are also the ones that tend to be funded heavily — Q4 2017 shows some huge investments in this area, with companies like Horizon Robotics raising $100 million, Graphcore raising $50 million, and Vayyar Imaging raising $45 million.Addressing the wider ecosystem, free tradeRhines was upbeat about the future prospects of the semiconductor industry, and the conference generally understood that there was a new reality for the industry. Sandro Grigolli, EMEA executive director, said at the opening session that the rise of companies not previously part of the industry, like Google, Amazon and Facebook, meant that the traditional semiconductor industry needed to figure out a way to “play gracefully with these companies.”“We are part of a larger ecosystem, and the GSA needs to change to accommodate this, which is what we are doing with the introduction of automotive and IoT security interest groups,” Grigolli said.On the threats of the new companies entering the chip industry, Faraj Aalaei, president and CEO of Aquantia, wasn’t too worried. “These companies are not a long-term threat to the semiconductor companies — over time, they’ll see the value in the learnings and experience [of established semi companies]. If your customer can build a better chip than you, you don’t deserve to be in the chip business — it just means your edge is not as good as you think it is.”Aalaei also said that the biggest problem with the semiconductor industry is Moore’s law. “By always referring to this law, the customer interprets this as, ‘I’m going to get the same product in 12 months’ time at half the price. So we need to stop talking about Moore’s law.”The tensions in free trade also came up, with Helmut Gassel, chief marketing officer and board member of Infineon Technologies, commenting, “In San Diego, two weeks ago at the World Semiconductor Council, we agreed that we need to work hard to ensure free trade across the globe and to convince politicians that trade wars are not good for growth.”
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Release time：2018-06-11 00:00 reading：1178 Continue reading>>
WSTS Revises <span style='color:red'>Chip Growth</span> Forecast to 17%
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WSTS Revises Chip Growth Forecast to 17%

　　The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS), a semiconductor firm member organization that tracks chip sales, has revised its forecast for 2017 semiconductor sales, saying it now expects growth of 17 percent compared with 2016.　　WSTS joins a host of other market watchers that have revised forecasts upward as 2017 has unfolder. Thanks largely to skyrocketing prices for memory chips amidst capacity undersupply, the semiconductor industry is on pace to enjoy its largest single year growth since the recession recovery year of 2010.　　WSTS bases its forecasts and sales reports on data provided by more than 50 semiconductor company members. Analysts and other market watchers generally uses WSTS data as the basis for their own forecasts.　　Based on updated sales data, WSTS says it now expects chip sales for 2017 to reach $397 billion, which would top the record of $339 billion set last year. The organization had initially forecast that chip sales would increase by 11.5 percent this year.　　Further growth in chip sales is expected next year, with WSTS predicting an additional 4.3 percent increase.
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Release time：2017-08-22 00:00 reading：1221 Continue reading>>

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