With Expectations of a Positive <span style='color:red'>Second Half</span> of 2018 and Beyond, Smartphone Volumes Poised to Return to Growth
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With Expectations of a Positive Second Half of 2018 and Beyond, Smartphone Volumes Poised to Return to Growth

While the worldwide smartphone market is expected to decline again in 2018, IDC believes the market will experience low single-digit growth from 2019 through the end of its forecast in 2022. The International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker forecasts worldwide smartphone shipments to decline 0.7% in 2018 to 1.455 billion units, down from 1.465 billion in 2017. However, IDC believes the market will return to positive growth in the second half of 2018 with volumes up 1.1% compared to the second half of 2017. In the long-term forecast, IDC expects the overall smartphone market to reach 1.646 billion units shipped in 2022.Overall, the global smartphone market is healthy and has plenty of upside, which is noted by the return to growth in the forecast. When breaking down the growth by device type, it is clear that large-screen smartphones (5.5 inch and larger) will lead the charge with volumes of 941.6 million in 2018, accounting for 64.7% of all smartphones, up from 623.2 million units in 2017 and 42.5% share. By 2022, shipments of these larger screen smartphones will jump to 1.391 billion units, or 84.5% of overall shipment volume.The industry is experiencing a shift toward higher aspect ratios, at or near 18:9, which require a larger screen to support the widescreen viewing angle. While the 18:x aspect ratio started with flagship and higher-end devices in 2017, it began to appear in lower-priced devices in 2018, including some sub-$200 handsets. By Q2 2018, 16:9 smartphones were overtaken by 17.5:9 aspect ratios (or higher) for the first time. As Chinese brands, such as Huawei, OPPO, vivo, and Xiaomi, expand their international presence, it is likely the focus on large screens and aspect ratios will remain a focus across their entire portfolio. The anticipation of the new iPhone models this fall, two of which IDC believes will be above 6 inches and available for shipment in the second half of 2018, will act as another catalyst toward driving these important display trends."With two out of three new iPhones expected to be larger than 6 inches, Apple will not be left behind in the 2018 race for increased screen real estate," said Melissa Chau, associate research director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers. "You could say the term 'phablet' is becoming less relevant now that most smartphones will ship with larger screens, and when folding screens start coming into play in the medium term, this screen trend will evolve in new directions."From a geographic perspective, the China market is finally showing signs of recovery and while IDC still expects the largest market in the world to be down 6.3% in 2018 (slightly worse than the 2017 downturn), that is mainly attributed to an extremely poor first half, which saw smartphone volumes down 11%. The second half is expected to improve to a decline of 2% before returning to positive growth in 2019. Asia/Pacific as a region still holds plenty of market growth led by India and Indonesia, which are expected to grow shipments in 2018 by 14.4% and 15.4% respectively.“We still believe the smartphone market has some healthy growth in the years to come, although finding and competing in those markets and segments is increasingly more challenging," said Ryan Reith, program vice president with IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. "With the US-China trade tariffs changing and unfolding daily it is hard to pinpoint what the exact impact on the market will be, but for the time being OEMs are pushing forward with important initiatives that include the previously mentioned traction around bigger and better displays. But the industry also has 5G knocking at its doors, and many OEMs, retailers, telcos, and supply chain partners will be working dligently to ensure consumers see the need to upgrade when products and services are readily available."Platform HighlightsAndroid: Android's smartphone share will hover around 85% share throughout the forecast. Volumes are expected to grow at a five-year CAGR of 2.4%, with shipments approaching 1.41 billion in 2022. Among the more interesting trends happening with Android shipments is that average selling prices (ASPs) are growing at a double-digit pace. IDC expects Android ASPs to grow 11.4% in 2018 to $262, up from $235 in 2017. IDC expects this upward trajectory to continue through the forecast, but at a more tempered low single-digit rate from 2019 and beyond. This is a sign of many OEMs slowly migrating their user base upstream to the slightly more expensive handsets. Overall this is a positive sign that consumers are seeing the benefits of moving to a slightly more premium device than they likely previously owned. The broad range of colors, screen sizes, features, and brands are a large catalyst for this movement.iOS: iPhone volumes are expected to grow by 2.1% in 2018 to 220.4 million in total. IDC is forecasting iPhones to grow at a five-year CAGR of 2.0%, reaching volumes of 238.5 million by 2022. With larger screen iOS smartphones coming up for launch in the second half of 2018, IDC has shifted greater volumes into the 6-inch to sub-7-inch screen size forecast for iOS. Products are on schedule to begin shipping in the third quarter and ramping up into the fourth quarter of 2018, with volumes growing to account for half of all iPhones shipped by 2022. 
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Release time：2018-08-30 00:00 reading：1341 Continue reading>>
WFE semiconductor equipment billings to drop 24% in second half of 2018
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WFE semiconductor equipment billings to drop 24% in second half of 2018

On the heels of a 37.3% growth in wafer front end (WFE) semiconductor equipment growth in 2017, the market will grow only 10% in 2018 to $62.3 billion, according to the report “The Global Semiconductor Equipment: Markets, Market Shares, Market Forecasts,” recently published by The Information Network,  a New Tripoli, PA-based market research company.For the first six months of 2018, WFE billings were $35.3 billion, meaning billings of $27.0 billion will be registered in the second half of 2018 if the sector as a whole grows 10% in CY 2018.This means a drop of 24% between 1H 2018 and 2H 2018.The chart below shows that U.S. equipment companies held a 48.8% share of the total sector in 1H 2018 followed by Japan with a 30.3% share and ROW (primarily Europe) with a 26.9% share. For 2H 2018, the weak Japanese Yen means Japan will have a 29.1% share, but stronger EUV sales by ASML will mean Europe’s share will grow to 28.0%.The memory market is moving into a period of oversupply: NAND oversupply started six months ago and has resulted in device price drops, while DRAMs will reach an oversupply situation in the next few months. As a result, market leader Samsung Electronics has pushed out purchases. Foundry leader TSMC has reduced its estimate for sales revenue growth in 2018 and its capital expenditure budget.
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Release time：2018-08-17 00:00 reading：1214 Continue reading>>
Strong 2Q’18 global supply chain growth but second half slowing
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Strong 2Q’18 global supply chain growth but second half slowing

2Q’18 Electronic Supply Chain Growth UpdateChart 1 is a preliminary estimate of global growth of the electronic supply chain by sector for 2Q’18 vs 2Q’17. Note the strong performance of semiconductors, SEMI capital equipment and passive components.Chart 2 gives preliminary 2Q’18 world electronic equipment growth by type. Global electronic equipment sales rose an estimated 9%+ when consolidated into US dollars in the second quarter of this year compared to the same quarter in 2017.Based on this, data global electronic equipment sales growth appears to have now peaked on a 3/12 growth basis for this present business cycle (Chart 3).As a caution these charts are based on a combination of actual company financial reports and estimates for companies that have not yet reported their calendar second quarter financial results. A number of large companies have yet to report but these early estimates have historically been close to final growth values.  We will update Chart 1 next month.Semiconductor Capital Equipment Business CycleSemiconductor capital equipment sales are historically very volatile, with their growth fluctuating MUCH MORE than electronic equipment (Chart 4). However, both series appear to have peaked on a 3/12 basis for this current cycle.Semiconductors, SEMI capital equipment and Taiwan chip foundry sales all are seeing slower growth. 3/12 values >1 still indicate an expansion but slower growth is indicated.Supply chain performance in the second half of this year bears careful watching!Walt Custer of Custer Consulting Group is an analyst focused on the global electronics industry.
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Release time：2018-08-15 00:00 reading：1216 Continue reading>>
Smartphone Displays Set to Move Rapidly to 18:9 and Wider Aspect Ratios in <span style='color:red'>Second Half</span> of 2018
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Smartphone Displays Set to Move Rapidly to 18:9 and Wider Aspect Ratios in Second Half of 2018

With every smartphone brand applying the 18:9 and wider aspect ratio screens to its newer models, the rate of adoption is expected to quicken in the second half of 2018. Smartphones using 18:9 and wider aspect screens are forecast to increase to 66 percent of total smartphone shipments in the third quarter of 2018, soaring up from 10 percent in the same period last year, according to business information provider IHS Markit (Nasdaq: INFO). After Samsung Electronics and Apple released their phones last year with new wider aspect ratios of 18.5:9 and 19.5:9, respectively, most smartphone brands have similarly followed suit by applying wider aspect screens to their 2018 lineup to keep up with product differentiation.Improvements in display technologies have hastened the expansion of the wider screen adoption in smartphones. Initially, flexible active-matrix organic light-emitting diode (AMOLED) technology was required to realize a full-screen display, and thus, 18:9 or wider screens were expected predominantly to be used in premium and high-end smartphones in 2018. However, with rapidly improving designs in liquid crystal display (LCD) cell structure, thin-film transistor (TFT) array and light-emitting diode (LED) backlight, TFT LCD can now be used in full-screen smartphones.“With the improvement in TFT LCD technology, smartphone makers are now aggressively applying 18:9 aspect ratio of TFT LCD to their 2018 models even for mid-end and entry-level smartphones, instead of using high-priced flexible AMOLED panels,” said Hiroshi Hayase, senior director at IHS Markit.“It would be correct to assume that smartphone displays are undergoing a quick generation change to TFT LCD-based full screens later this year,” Hayase said. “The new generation of smartphones will be expected to stimulate replacement demand in the 2019 smartphone market.”
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Release time：2018-07-17 00:00 reading：1511 Continue reading>>
High Hopes for <span style='color:red'>Second Half</span> Smartphone Shipments
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High Hopes for Second Half Smartphone Shipments

　　The electronics supply chain is widely expected to get a lift in the second half of the year from an increase in smartphone shipments due to the launch of several next-generation flagship handsets, notably new models of Apple's iPhone.　　Smartphone shipments in the second quarter were down 1.3 percent from the second quarter of 2016 and down 0.8 percent compared to the first quarter of this year, according to market research firm International Data Corp. (IDC). But the firm — like other market watchers — expects smartphone  shipments to bounce back in the second half of the year to post year-over-year growth in both the third and fourth quarters.　　Market research firm TrendForce estimates that total smartphone production volume in the second half will increase by 10 percent compared to the first half of the year, reaching more than 716 million units. The firm estimated that first half smartphone production totaled about 650 million units, an increase of 7 percent compared with the first half of 2016.　　In addition to Apple's iPhone 8 — expected to launch next month to mark the 10th anniversary of the initial iPhone launch — Samsung is widely expected to introduce its Galaxy Note 8 smartphone later this month. Other high profile devices are also expected to start shipping.　　"Despite some key launches in the second quarter from some well-known players, all eyes will be on the ultra-high-end flagships set to arrive this fall," said Anthony Scarsella, research manager with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, in a press statement. "With devices like the iPhone 8, [LTE] Pixel 2, Note 8, and [LG] V30 in the pipeline, the competition will be fierce come September.　　Though overall smartphone shipment volumes slipped, each of the top five smartphone vendors grew shipments during the second quarter, according to IDC, demonstrating the extent to which the smartphone market is a game of haves versus have nots.　　Ryan Reith, program vice president with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers, said the biggest reason for smartphone shipment contraction was the performance of vendors outside of the top five.　　"It's no secret that the smartphone market is a very challenging segment for companies to maintain or grow share, especially as already low average selling prices declined by another 4.3 percent in 2016, Reith said. "The smaller, more localized vendors will continue to struggle, especially as the leading volume drivers build out their portfolio into new markets and price segments."
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Release time：2017-08-04 00:00 reading：1326 Continue reading>>
Memory Chip ASP Growth Expected to Cool in <span style='color:red'>Second Half</span>
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Memory Chip ASP Growth Expected to Cool in Second Half

　　Sales of DRAM and NAND flash memory are both expected to set new records amid tight supply in 2017, though white hot growth in average selling prices (ASPs) are expected to cool through the end of the year, according to market research firm IC Insights.　　DRAM ASPs are projected to increase by 63 percent this year, while NAND ASPs are expected to grow by 33 percent, according to IC Insights. These numbers would mark record ASP growth for each category, the firm said.　　IC Insights (Scottsdale, Ariz.) said it believes DRAM quarterly ASP growth peaked in the fourth quarter of 2016, but the firm expects to to continue growing through the third quarter before turning slightly negative in the fourth quarter, signaling the end of the cyclical upturn.　　IC Insights expects flash memory capital spending to increase significantly in 2017, with nearly all of the new investment going toward 3D NAND flash memory technology. Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, Intel, Toshiba/SanDisk, and XMC/Yangtze River Storage Technology each plan to significantly ramp up 3D NAND flash capacity over the next couple of years, and new Chinese players may enter the market, putting the likelihood of overcapacity in the market for 3D NAND over the next few year very high, IC Insights said.　　The strong ASP growth expected for both DRAM and NAND flash this year means sales of both are forecast to rise to record highs despite the fact that DRAM unit shipments are actually expected to decline while NAND shipments are expected to increase by only about 2 percent, IC Insights said.
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Release time：2017-07-20 00:00 reading：1053 Continue reading>>

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